VOA常速英语2015--世界银行估计埃博拉的经济影响

世界银行估计埃博拉的经济影响

The World Bank estimates Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone will lose more than $1.5 billion this year in economic growth due to Ebola. However, the economic effect on the West Africa region overall is now expected to be much lower than previous forecasts.

世界银行估计几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂今年将因为埃博拉损失掉15亿美元以上的经济发展，然而，埃博拉对整个西非地区的经济影响现在有望低于之前的预测。

World Bank Senior Economist 1 Dave Evans, co-author of the latest report on Ebola’s economic consequences, said the three worst affected 2 countries have seen their economies contract. Prior to the outbreak, good economic growth had been expected.

世界银行资深经济学家戴夫·伊万斯是最近有关埃博拉经济后果报告的联合作者，他说三个影响最大国家的经济已经收缩，而在疫情爆发前人们曾预测经济发展良好。

“Essentially, the economic slowdown has been profound. This is a huge change for these economies and a real challenge,” he said.

“从本质上来说经济放缓已经很严重了，这对这些经济体来说是个巨大的变化，也是真正的挑战。”

When determining the economic impact of Ebola, the World Bank studies how people react to the disease.

在判断埃博拉的经济影响时，世界银行研究人们对疫情如何反应。

“With the economic impact of Ebola it really comes through these reactions based on fear – or what we often call aversion behavior – people taking decisions to avoid any exposure to the disease," he said. "One of the challenges with that is that even as the disease starts to get under control and we have fewer cases, it doesn’t necessarily mean that investors 3 immediately start making new plans to open new mines or set up new factories. The effects can be quite enduring.”

“埃博拉的经济影响是基于人们的恐惧反应，也就是我们通常所说的厌恶行为，人们采取决定来避免与疾病有任何接触。其中的一个挑战就是，随着疾病慢慢得到控制，病例减少，这并不一定意味着投资者会立即开始制定开新矿或办新厂的新计划，其影响可能会持续很久。”

He said that phone surveys show that despite a decline in the number of new Ebola cases, job losses remain high and food insecurity persists.

他说电话调查显示，尽管埃博拉新病例数量有所减少，就业损失仍很严重，粮食短缺问题仍存在。

Evans said there are previous examples of the effects of fear on behavior.

伊万斯说以前就有过恐惧效应的情况。

“I think it’s most reminiscent of what we saw with SARS and in the early days of AIDS where there was a lot of uncertainty 4 about exactly how people could be exposed," he said. "And as a result, people take sometimes extreme reactions to avoid any interaction with these economies.”

“我想这最能让人联想到非典爆发时的情况，以及艾滋病爆发早期的情况，当时人们对接触疾病程度有多大具体不清楚，结果，人们有时采取极端措施来避免与这些经济体的交往。”

In October, the World Bank estimated the West Africa region could suffer up to $25 billion in losses in 2015. But that estimate is now sharply lower.

去年10月份，世界银行估计2015年西非地区将遭受250亿美元的损失，但这个估计现在已经急剧降低。

Evans said, “What we’ve done is we’ve spoken to our economists 5 in every country around sub-Saharan Africa. What we observe now is that the actual impact we’re seeing for all of Africa – not just West Africa – is more on the order of $500 million – very, very small -- even if we look at a bad case scenario 6. So, a scenario where the epidemic 7 does spread more in the region we’re looking at about $6.2 billion for all of Africa. So that’s much, much smaller than the $25 billion we were talking about for just West Africa alone.”

伊万斯说，“我们做的是，我们和撒哈拉南部非洲周围每个国家都进行了对话，我们现在观察到的是，包括西非在内的整个非洲遭受的损失大约在5亿美元，这是很少的，即使会出现最糟糕的情况。所以，考虑到这场疫情已经蔓延到更多国家，我们现在估计整个非洲的损失在62亿美元，所以这比我们之前估计的西非250亿美元的损失要少得多。”

The senior economist said the revised forecast is due to – what the bank calls -- “intensive global and national responses to the epidemic over the past several months.”

这位经济学家称这一修改后的预测是基于所谓“过去数月全球和各国的大力应对”。

“The disease,” he said, “has been controlled significantly within the countries. So, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have taken lots of action to improve safe burials, improve treatments, change behavior -- where people are careful to avoid exposure. And at the same time, neighboring countries have taken strong action to protect themselves. And we see this in Nigeria, Senegal and Mali.”

“这场疫情已在这些国家内部得到很好的控制，所以，利比里亚、塞拉利昂和几内亚已采取大量措施来改善安全埋葬、治疗手段、改变人们的行为，人们小心地避免接触该病毒。同时，邻国也采取强力措施来保护自己，我们看到尼日利亚、塞内加尔和马里就是如此。”

Nigeria, Senegal and Mali did have a small number of Ebola cases, but all three have been declared Ebola-free.

尼日利亚、塞内加尔和马里的埃博拉病例缺少少了，但三个国家都已宣布消除埃博拉。

Evans cautioned, however, that until the number of Ebola cases reaches zero, there is always a chance that the epidemic could grow much worse again.

然而，伊万斯警告说，就算是埃博拉病例为零的时候，这场疫情也有可能再次蔓延。