朝鲜经济未被国际制裁压垮

 　　North Korea is bowed but not broken by international sanctions, according to clues gleaned 1 by a small group of outsiders dedicated 2 to shining a light on the reclusive Asian nation.

　　根据一小部分致力于揭示朝鲜状况的外部人士收集的线索，这个与世隔绝的亚洲国家受到了打击，但并没有被国际制裁击垮。
　　Although poverty remains 3 rife 4 in the 25m-strong country, the economy has shown signs of increased prosperity as it diversifies 5 away from the state-dominated system that led to famines in the 1990s.
　　在这个人口超过2500万的国家，贫困仍普遍存在，但随着该国摆脱曾在上世纪90年代导致饥荒的由政府主宰的体制，其经济显示出了更为富裕的迹象。
　　“In the countryside it’s tough and in Pyongyang it’s normal,” said Nick Bonner of travel company Koryo Tours, who last visited Pyongyang two weeks ago. Despite tightened 7 sanctions, middle-class pleasures such as shopping and outings “are continuing — you wouldn’t notice a change on the surface of things”.
　　高丽旅行社(Koryo Tours)的尼克?邦纳(Nick Bonner)表示：“在农村，生活很艰难，但平壤还算正常。”他上次去朝鲜是在两周前。尽管制裁力度加大，但购物和郊游等中产阶级乐趣仍“在继续，你从表面上看不到什么变化”。
　　Frequent visitors say the capital has been growing more comfortable. People own mobile phones, raise pets and are starting to travel round the country. Food kiosks and coffee shops are appearing on the capital’s streets.
　　经常去朝鲜的游客表示，平壤变得更舒适了。人们有了手机，饲养宠物，开始在全国各地旅游。食品店和咖啡厅正在平壤街头出现。
　　Floods last summer damaged the country’s harvest and led to fears of food shortages. But Chinese grains export data show that North Korea bought less than it did after similar crises in 2011 or 2013, indicating a smaller impact.
　　去年夏季的洪水破坏了朝鲜的收成，引发食品短缺的担忧。但中国的粮食出口数据显示，朝鲜购买的粮食数量不及2011年或2013年发生类似危机后的水平，这表明去年夏季洪水造成的影响较小。
　　The variety of consumer goods has blossomed in state-run shopping malls, according to Rudiger Frank, head of East Asian studies at the University of Vienna, who noted 8 in a February visit that nearly everything was imported from China. “This is bad news for South Korea, which hoped to play that role after unification,” he wrote in a post this month for 38 North, a website about North Korea run by Johns Hopkins University.
　　维也纳大学(University of Vienna)东亚研究主管吕迪格?弗朗克(Rudiger Frank)表示，各种各样的消费品在政府运营的商场出现，他在2月访问朝鲜时曾指出，几乎一切都是从中国进口的。他本月在为关于朝鲜的网站38 North撰写的博文中写道：“对于韩国而言，这是个坏消息，韩国原本希望在韩朝统一后发挥这种作用。”该网站由约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)运营。
　　While the US wants to tighten 6 the screw on the Kim Jong Un regime to force it to give up its nuclear programme, China — North Korea’s main trading partner — has argued that basic trade must be maintained to prevent millions of refugees from fleeing a failed state.
　　尽管美国希望收紧对金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政权的制裁，以迫使其放弃核计划，但中国（朝鲜的主要贸易伙伴）认为，基本贸易必须维持，以阻止数百万难民逃离一个失败国家。
　　However, there are growing calls within China for it to use its sway over a regime that is increasingly seen as a threat. The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid 9 often used to convey messages to other countries, suggested this month that Beijing could cut off oil supplies to its neighbour.
　　然而，在中国国内，越来越多的人呼吁中国利用其对这个日益被视为威胁的政权的影响力。民族主义小报《环球时报》经常被用来向其他国家传达消息，本月该报曾提出，北京可能会切断对朝鲜的石油供应。
　　Beijing has already announced that, in compliance 10 with UN sanctions, it will stop importing North Korean coal — a primary export item and source of hard currency — for the remainder of the year.
　　中国已宣布，中国将遵照联合国制裁决议，在今年剩下的时间里停止进口朝鲜煤炭，煤炭是朝鲜的主要出口商品和主要外汇来源。
　　“The North Korean people usually use coal for heating, so an oil cut would affect their economic and industrial base,” especially transportation of goods around the country, said Cai Jian, an expert at Fudan University in Shanghai.
　　上海复旦大学朝韩专家蔡建表示，“朝鲜人民通常用煤炭取暖，切断石油供应将影响他们的经济和工业基础，”特别是对于在全国各地运输商品。
　　Customs data show North Korea has imported about 50,000 tonnes a month of crude oil between 2006 and 2013, when China stopped publishing the data.
　　海关数据显示，2006年至2013年（此后中国停止公布这些数据），朝鲜每月进口约5万吨原油。
　　Analysing economic life within the Hermit 11 Kingdom requires a special kind of detective work, involving a small group of cognoscenti who scour 12 customs and shipping 13 data, travellers’ reports, state news and satellite images. Their work appears on websites such as 38 North or North Korean Economy Watch.
　　分析这个“隐士王国”的经济状况需要特殊的侦探工作，包括一小批研究海关和航运数据、游客报告、官方新闻和卫星图片的专家。他们的研究结果发布在38 North或朝鲜经济观察(North Korean Economy Watch)等网站上。
　　Taken together, the patchwork 14 of information gives a picture of economic activity. For instance, Chinese exports of coking coal and iron ore to North Korea and imports of iron or steel back into China all dropped in 2015. In his 2016 New Year’s speech, Mr Kim called for ensuring supply to the flagship Kim Chaek steelworks, the country’s oldest and largest mill.
　　经过综合梳理，拼凑起来的信息展示了朝鲜的经济活动。例如，2015年，中国对朝鲜的焦煤和铁矿石出口以及中国从朝鲜的钢铁进口都出现下滑。在2016年的新年致辞中，金正恩要求确保对该国历史最悠久且规模最大的旗舰炼钢厂金策(Kim Chaek)的供应。
　　A midsummer analysis of infrared 15 satellite imagery posted to 38 North concluded the mill was still partially 16 operating. And sure enough, Chinese customs data show exports of sintered ore — a trade that had begun the year before — had faltered 17 around the time of Mr Kim’s speech but was fully 18 recovered by the summer.
　　在38 North发布的去年仲夏期间对红外卫星图像的分析显示，该钢铁厂仍在部分运转。果然，中国海关数据显示，在一年前开始的烧结矿出口，到了金正恩发表新年致辞前后大幅下降，但到去年夏季已全面恢复。