VOA常速英语2014--伊朗核谈判将在2015继续艰难进行

Tough Iran Talks to Resume in 2015 伊朗核谈判将在2015继续艰难进行

LONDON—

Talks aimed at ensuring that Iran cannot build a nuclear weapon, and ending international sanctions against it, missed a self-imposed deadline in 2014 and will resume next year. Experts say reaching an agreement is essential for both sides but will not be any easier in the new year.

The negotiators had already extended their talks once, leading to considerable disappointment when they missed their second deadline in November.  But U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said what he called “substantial progress” justified 1 extending the talks again.

协商者已经将谈判推迟了，未能在11月第二次最后期限前完成，由此导致的失望情绪很大。但美国国务卿约翰·克里所谓的“巨大进步”能为再次推迟谈判找到理由。

“Given how far we have come over the past year, and particularly in the last few days, this is not certainly the time to get up and walk away,” said Kerry.

“考虑到我们过去一年取得的进步，尤其是过去几天里，现在当然不是起来就行动的时候。”

Six countries representing the United Nations are negotiating with Iran to reduce its nuclear fuel enrichment capacity to a level that would leave it as much as a year away from making a nuclear bomb if its leaders were to decide to do so.  Currently, experts say, it is only about two months away.

代表联合国的六个国家在与伊朗协商，希望将该国核浓缩的能力降低到这样的水平，即如果其领导人希望制造核弹，需要一年的时候才能制成。专家称该国现在只需两月时间。

Iranian officials say they have no intention of obtaining nuclear weapons, but they have a large nuclear program and want a bigger one, and that raises concerns in the international community.

伊朗官员称无意获取核武器，但该国有着庞大的核项目，并希望获得更大的核项目，这就令国际社会担忧。

Experts say the dispute will not be any easier to settle next year.

专家称未来一年解决这场争议并不容易。

“It’s hard to see what would change to make a deal any more likely next year when they couldn’t reach a deal in the past 12 months of negotiations,” says Mark Fitzpatrick from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

马克·菲茨帕特里克就职于国际战略研究所，“过去12个月的协商未能达成协议，很难说需要作出什么改变来使明年达成协议。”

But he adds it’s important to keep negotiating anyway.

但他说重要的是保持协商继续进行下去。

“Without diplomacy 2 Iran’s program would not remain capped.  We would be back in a cycle of confrontation 3 and crisis that could lead to Iran getting closer to a nuclear weapon and could lead to military action,” says he.

“不采取外交手段，伊朗的核项目就不能结束，那样我们将回到对抗和危机的循环之中，那就会导致伊朗越来越接近核武器，可能会导致军事行动。”

But Fitzpatrick and others say the interim 4 accord, reached in late 2013, is not good enough for the long term.  

但菲茨帕特里克等人说2013年底达成的临时协议从长远来说并不足够好。

Trita Parsi, an Iranian-American author and activist 5 with the National Iranian American Council, agrees.

就职于伊朗裔美国人全国理事会的特里塔·帕尔西表示赞同。

“The interim deal, even if it may be attractive to both sides right now, probably is not sustainable in the long run because the political landscapes on both sides are going to be somewhat unforgiving and not permit this to be extended over and over again,” says Parsi.

“即使这个临时协议目前对双方都有吸引力，但从长远来看并不具有可持续性，因为双方的政治环境都变得有点不宽容，不会允许协商一再拖延下去。”

Experts say Iranian opponents of a deal can be controlled by the Supreme 6 Leader, if he likes the final document.  But Parsi says Iran is concerned that Republican gains in the November election could make it impossible for President Barack Obama to deliver full sanctions relief.

专家称如果伊朗最高领袖喜欢最终协议，那么伊朗的反对者可能会被他控制。帕尔西说伊朗担心共和党在11月选举中获胜将会使得巴拉克·奥巴马不可能兑现完全解除制裁的承诺。

“There are question marks in the minds of the Iranians as to whether the American promises about sanctions relief actually can be trusted - not to say that they don’t have enough confidence in the president, but they may not have enough confidence in the U.S. Congress,” says Parsi.

“伊朗人心中有着疑问，那就是美国承诺解除制裁是否值得信任，这并不是说他们对总统没有信心，而是可能对美国国会没有足够的信心。”

The negotiators have given themselves seven more months to reach an agreement.  Parsi says all sides should use that time to muster 7 the political will to accept difficult compromises before patience in Washington and Tehran runs out.

协商者要求自己在7个月内达成协议，帕尔西说，在华盛顿和伊朗的耐心都用完之前，各方都应该在这段时间内鼓起政治意愿来接受困难的妥协。