VOA常速英语2014--美国希望看到美联储刺激措施的连锁反应

US Expected to See Ripple 1 Effects of Fed's Stimulus 2 美国希望看到美联储刺激措施的连锁反应 

Most experts say the U.S. Federal Reserve's massive bond-buying program that ended in October helped stablilize the U.S. economy, but it also sent billions of dollars into emerging economies. Now, as 2014 winds down, some of that money is starting to return to the U.S.

Since 2008, the U.S. central bank has pumped nearly $4 trillion into the global economy with its stimulus policy. Besides boosting liquidity 3, quantitative 4 easing, as the practice is known, also sent U.S. interest rates to record lows.

自2008年起，美国央行向全球经济注入近4万亿美元，除了促进流动性外，这种名为量化宽松的政策还让美元利率达到创纪录的最低点。

But instead of causing a spike 5 in inflation as many had feared, some of the money began flowing into countries where yields were higher.

但这一政策没有像很多人担心的那样导致通胀飙升，部分资金开始流到回报较高的国家。

“Emerging markets have been the beneficiaries of investors 6' search for yield,” said Catherine Mann, chief economist 7 at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

凯瑟琳·曼是经济合作与合战组织首席经济学家，“新兴市场一直是投资者在寻找收益时的受益者。”

Among the beneficiaries have been the BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia India and China. But now, with U.S. interest rates set to rise next year, Brad McMillan at Commonwealth 8 Financial Network said some of that money will start flowing back to the United States.

受益者中一直有金砖国家—巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。但现在，随着明年美国利率有望升高，联邦金融网络的布拉德·麦克米兰说部分资金开始回流到美国。

“With U.S. rates starting to rise, the attractiveness of the U.S. as an investment destination continues to increase," he said. "You’re going to see a lot of capital that went to emerging markets potentially come back.”

“随着美元利率开始升高，美国作为投资目标地的吸引力开始增加，我们开始看到可能流到新兴市场的资本开始回流。”

That’s not necessarily a bad thing, said the OECD’s Mann.

OECD的曼说这不一定是件坏事。

“Part of the reason why that’s the case is that tapering 9 has happened along with a speed-up in the U.S. economy," she said. "So emerging markets, even as capital was being reallocated, ended up doing better from the standpoint of exporting.”

“这部分是因为美国经济加速的同时，也在逐渐减弱势头。因此对于新兴市场来说，即使资本得到重新分配，从出口的角度来看仍表现不错。”

That’s because a stronger dollar makes foreign exports cheaper. On the other hand, it's also likely to produce increased volatility 10, the ups and down in financial markets.  

这是因为强美元使得外国出口商品变便宜，另一方面，这也可能导致不稳定，导致金融市场动荡不安。

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser 11 at financial services firm Allianz, said volatility returned to the foreign exchange market "because we’re going from a world of multispeed central banking 12 to multitrack central banking.  In the old days, everybody was doing the same thing, just different magnitudes. Now we have two central banks that are lifting their foot off the accelerator — Bank of England and the Fed — and we have two other central banks that are putting their foot more on the accelerator — the ECB (the European Central Bank) and the Bank of Japan.”

穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安是金融服务公司安联集团的首席经济顾问，他说“外汇市场恢复动荡是因为世界各地的央行正在从以不同速度的调控转变为不同轨道的调控。在过去，大家都做着类似的事情，只是力度不同而已。但现在有两个国家的央行停止刺激措施，分别是英格兰银行和美联储，而另外还有两大央行在加大刺激力度，分别是欧洲央行和日本央行。”

Experts say price volatility is an integral part of economic normalization 13. James Berkeley of Ellice Consulting said it might prove to be a turning point for the global economy.

专家称价格不稳定是经济常态化的组成部分，爱丽斯咨询公司的詹姆斯·伯克利称这可能表明全球经济进入拐点。

“I think governments should really be focused on trying to maximize international trade and to really take advantage of this period of beyond recovery," he said. "We’re now into a period I would describe as serious sustained growth.”

“我认为各国政府应该关注于努力使国际贸易最大化，真正利用好这种持续增长的机会，我们现在进入了一个阶段，我称之为真正的持续增长。”

Despite the economic slowdown in parts of the world, experts say a stronger U.S. economy along with lower oil prices is likely to boost consumption. And when consumers buy more, emerging markets that produce more than 35 percent of the world's goods are likely to be among the winners in 2015.

尽管世界部分地区经济放缓，专家称美国经济走强及低油价可能会促进消费，一旦消费者增加购买，产出全世界35%以上商品的新兴市场可能名列2015年的赢家行列。