VOA标准英语2012--Mali on Brink of Becoming a Terrorist Safe Haven

Mali on Brink 1 of Becoming a Terrorist Safe Haven 2

2012 was the year that armed men seized control of Mali. And their grip looks stronger than ever -- both in the north and the south.

Analysts 3 say a military junta 4 pulls the strings 5 in the capital, Bamako. The soldiers, who mutinied and then overthrew 6 the elected president on March 22, closed the year by forcing out the interim 7 prime minister and his government in December.

Meanwhile, al-Qaida-linked Islamist militants 8 have controlled the northern two-thirds of the country since April. Their brutal 9 application of Sharia law has included stonings and amputations. Nearly half a million people have fled. That number could swell 10 by tens, or even hundreds, of thousands during expected fighting next year.

African leaders now have U.N. backing for a phased military intervention 11 to send in 3,300 regional troops to retrain and ultimately fight alongside the Malian army.

African Union ambassador Antonio Tete told the U.N. Security Council the deployment 12 is an integral part of a three-track plan that includes negotiations 13 and reinforcing the political transition in Bamako.

"Any perception of a lack of decisiveness on any of these tracks may send the wrong message to the terrorist and criminal networks, as well as to the armed groups that are not committed to a negotiated solution, while prolonging the suffering of the civilian 14 population and increasing the threat to regional and international peace and security," Tete said.

Impatience 15 is growing in Mali. Ethnic 16 northern militias 17 are training near the front lines. Analysts say the fight to retake the north could descend 18 into civil war and bloody 19 reprisals 20.

Experts warn that the Malian army is not ready.

The U.N. resolution did not set a timeline for the military offensive. U.N. Special Representative to the Sahel, Romano Prodi, has said it's not possible before September 2013.

"Any military effort in Mali must be undertaken after careful analysis and thorough preparation and that these efforts should be part of an agreed political process that tackles the roots of the conflic," Prodi said.

International Crisis Group West Africa Director, Gilles Yabi, said while months of preparation are needed, it's impossible to know the risk of waiting.

"Will this time give the armed groups -- some of them known terrorists linked to al-Qaida -- more time to recruit and to train people to carry out attacks abroad? Does that mean we should move faster? That's hard to say, but urgency should not justify 21 hasty decisions. Time invested now in negotiations could isolate 22 the hardline terrorists and lead to an intervention strategy that minimizes the risk to civilians," Gilles said.

Foreign Jihadists in northern Mali have threatened terrorist attacks in countries contributing troops. Attempts to oust 23 the Islamists could also push fighters, and fighting, into neighboring countries.