2016年CRI 1992 Consensus Basis for Regular Contact Between Cross-Straits Affairs Authorities: Mainland

The State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office says only by confirming an adherence 1 to the 1992 Consensus 2 can regular cross-Straits communications continue.

Meanwhile, the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits - the mainland organization which deals directly with Taiwan on technical and business issues - also says it will need to hear an adherence to the "one China" principle to continue meeting with its counterparts on the island.

Ni Yongjie, deputy head of the Taiwan Research Institute in Shanghai, says without the Consensus, cross-Straits ties are likely to suffer a major impact.

"Without supporting the Consensus, political trust, which is the most important aspect of cross-Straits relations, will be affected 3, and even stuck in stagnation 4. This could lead to a series of things happening. The negotiation 5 mechanism 6 between the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits and its Taiwan counterpart could be broken. The deals already reached between the two sides could be affected, as could further cross-straits economic cooperation. Then there's the communication mechanism between the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office and its Taiwan counterpart... It could run into trouble. The newly-established hot line between the two offices might be cut off. And of course, in terms of another meeting between the top leaders of both sides... well... don't even think about it!"

The mainland's Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits and its Taiwan counterpart, the Straits Exchange Foundation, were established as non-governmental organizations after 1992 to deal with cross-Straits issues.

However, following the election of former pro-Taiwan independence leader Chen Shui-bian in late 1999, contact between the groups was cut off.

Chen headed the Democratic Progressive Party, the same political party of new Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen.

Only after Chen was ousted 7 from office in 2008 did the two sides start talking again.

Since then, more than 20 different cross-Straits agreements have been signed, opening up numerous business and travel opportunities for people on both sides.

Cao Xiaoheng, director of the Taiwan Economic Research Institute at Nankai University, says for those opportunities to continue, the DPP will have to mirror the political stance the previous ruling party, the Kuomintang, took.

"Currently there is no foundation for dialogue between the ruling parties of the two sides. This will require the Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, to lay such a foundation by adhering to the 1992.Consensus. The positive cross-straits dialogue and communication since 2008 is something most people from the two sides would like to see. However, the new administration in Taiwan will hold all the responsibility if all these positive developments over the past 8 years are lost as a result of the DPP's refusal to adhere to the 1992 Consensus."

At a government-to-government level, there has been movement.

A mechanism for regular communication was established 2 years ago between the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office and its governmental counterpart in Taiwan.

Heads of the two offices have met with each other 5 times since then.

A hot line between the two governments was officially launched in December last year following the historic meeting between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-Jeou.

For CRI, this is Ding Heng.