PBS高端访谈:英国首相特蕾莎·梅宣布提前大选 是否冒风险?

 　　As we reported earlier, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced today she would ask for elections to be held this June, instead of in 2020. Jeffrey Brown has that.

　　The prime minister's request for snap elections was made with an eye towards shoring up her negotiating position,
　　as the United Kingdom heads into tough talks over the terms of its exit from the European Union.
　　After repeatedly saying she would not call for early elections, it was a move that took many by surprise.
　　From London, we're joined by Stephanie Baker 1, a senior writer at Bloomberg.
　　Stephanie, first with that surprise, how big was it, or even shock for many there, and how was it taken?
　　It was a big shock, and it was — a lot of people were surprised it hadn't leaked out beforehand.
　　As you noted 2 in your report, she, Theresa May, the prime minister, has ruled out an early election repeatedly over the past few months.
　　And people took her at her word. So even members of her own party were taken aback by the decision.
　　So, how fractured is the political debate there?
　　Was there a sense that she did this because she realized she needed a strong mandate 3 in order to shore up her support over Brexit?
　　Yes. Her Conservative Party has a slim 17-seat majority in Parliament, and you know, I think she is taking a calculated bet here.
　　She's taken a look at the polls, which give her Conservative Party a 20-point lead,
　　and she thinks she could increase her majority in Parliament by picking up disaffected 4 voters from the opposition 5 Labor 6 Party,
　　particularly those who supported Brexit in the north, to increase her majority, so that when she goes to Brussels to negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the E.U.,
　　she can come back with a deal, and not be attacked for any kind of compromises or, you know, negotiating conclusions by the hard anti-European wing of her own party.
　　And how big a personal risk is she taking? I saw that opposition figures were already painting her as a kind of opportunist trying to take advantage of things here.
　　Well, yes, I mean, I think she runs a personal risk of undermining her own credibility,
　　since she did say so many times that she wouldn't hold an early election, that the country didn't need another election, that it would undermine stability.
　　She does look like another politician who has gone back on her word, and I think that will play out during the campaign over the next seven weeks.
　　So, one of the big questions, of course, is to what extent this reopens the whole question of Brexit. How much will it be the subject of debate in this election?
　　I think that's what a lot of people are talking about now.
　　Traditionally, the U.K. has been dominated by the two main political parties, the Conservatives and the left-leaning Labor Party.
　　The Labor Party is in a current state of disarray 7. It's led by a weak leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who is regarded as very un-prime ministerial.
　　There is a third party called the Liberal Democrats 8 who were part of a governing coalition 9 between 2010 and 2015.
　　They have positioned themselves as the party of the remain vote,
　　that is, the 48 percent of British voters who backed staying in the E.U., and they are trying to turn this election into a kind of quasi-rerun of the referendum.
　　Whether or not they will be able to do that, how many seats they will be able to pick by running that strategy is unclear.
　　But, certainly, in areas like London and the South of England, which voted overwhelmingly for remain, they're likely to pick up quite a number of seats.
　　So it's hard to see how the balance will change.
　　And just briefly 10, in 30 seconds or so, Stephanie, Americans, of course, are used to endless, years-long elections. This is June 8, so it's very quick.
　　It is. It's seven weeks of campaigning. Parties are going to have to be writing their election manifestos, getting fund-raising in place.
　　It will be incredibly quick. It is not unexpected. There were many people amongst all of the different parties who thought that she would call it.
　　The timing 11, of course, caught many people by surprise.
　　Stephanie Baker of Bloomberg in London, thank you very much. undefined