2016年CRI Restrain things from escalation: expert on Sino-US relations

Last week's ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration 1 in the Hague has led some observers to suggest there is a growing polarization of camps among those who do and don't back China's position on the dispute with the Philippines.

This includes some who have suggested the dispute could eventually end up in an armed conflict.

Su Ge, President of the China Institute of International Studies, says rational thinking is going to be what's needed to ensure that scenario 2 doesn't become a reality.

"Do not feed each other, and do not let things escalate 3. When you send planes too close, and you might feed the rationale to the Chinese military. That is precisely 4 the reason, just as you have the military capabilities 5 in Guam, and because you are so close, we have to have capabilities to defend these islands to make sure lives and properties are safe."

Compounding the issue is the timing 6 of the ruling, which comes amid the current presidential election campaign in the United States.

The 4-year cycle often increases political rhetoric 7, as candidates on both sides of the aisle 8 have been known to use the United States' relationship with China as a way to galvanize support among the voter base in both the Democratic and Republican camps.

Pundits 9 and candidates on both sides have been critical of the outgoing Obama administration for being too soft on China.

Elizabeth Economy, Director of the American Council on Foreign Relations, says Chinese officials need to look past the stump 10 speeches and work toward shoring up the broader relationship.

"It may not be the new candidates come in and say we have to be tough on China, although every candidate says that every election, this is not something new. We want to work with China. China matters enormously. The importance that President Obama places on China is extremely significant. The optimism, the degree to which the president feels we have a natural partner across a full-range of issues has diminished."

The United States and China have been able to work together recently on a number of key issues, including climate change, the Iranian nuclear issue and the long-term development of the global economy.

However, these issues tend to be overlooked when observers talk about the Sino-US dynamic, which also has a lasting 11 impact on economic ties.

A recent survey by the US Chamber 12 of Commerce suggests 77-percent of US companies operating in China feel less welcome than they have in the past.

Dennis Wilder is the former director of East Asian Affairs with the National Security Council under former President George W. Bush.

He suggests governments in both the US and China should be considering steps beyond the Strategic and Economic Dialogue the two sides conduct once a year.

"The Strategic Economic Dialogue, as it exists today, is useful and can continue. You have to make a commitment on a higher level to doing something that isn't sitting in large chairs together. We have a distance between the US and China. One of the things we were criticized in the Bush administration for is that Condoleezza Rice would not go to Southeast Asia very often. We were guilty. But people at the senior level have got to make a commitment to spending real time with each other."

This year's World Peace Forum 13, the 5th put on by Tsinghua University, will run through this Sunday.