2007年VOA标准英语-Battle for Republican Party US Presidential Nom

By Jim Malone
Washington
05 March 2007

For the first time since the presidential election of 2000, Republicans are engaged in a heated competition to see who will emerge as the party's presidential nominee 1 in 2008. So far, the race has taken some surprising turns, as we hear from VOA National correspondent Jim Malone.

 
Republican presidential hopeful, Rudy Giuliani  speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington DC, 2 March 2007
A recent poll showed former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani the top choice among Republican presidential contenders. Giuliani led Arizona Senator John McCain by a margin 2 of 44 to 21 percent, even though McCain had long been considered the frontrunner for the Republican nomination 3 in 2008.

Many political commentators 4 have argued that Giuliani will have trouble winning the Republican race because conservative voters dislike his support for abortion 5 rights, gay rights and gun control measures.

But, so far, Giuliani is defying expectations, and many conservatives seem to like the leadership qualities he demonstrated in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks, when he emerged as a national figure.

Giuliani recently spoke 6 to a large group of is to figure out who do you believe the most, and what do you think are the most important things for this country at a particular time. We do believe in many of the same things."

 
Senator John McCain speaks during a town hall meeting  in South Carolina (19 Feb 2007)
Giuliani's early rise in the polls has come at the expense of Senator McCain. Some conservatives are also wary 7 of McCain for his support of reform efforts in the areas of campaign finance and immigration, and McCain was one of the few Republican presidential contenders who did not address the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

"Over the last several months, McCain has lost ground, Giuliani has gained ground," said Larry Sabato, who directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "I do not think that means that Giuliani will be the nominee, but it does suggest that a lot of Republicans still have doubts about John McCain."

McCain is working to recapture the political momentum 8 he sparked when he ran a close race against then Texas Governor George Bush in the 2000 Republican primaries.

Mr. Bush eventually overtook McCain that year and went on to win the presidency 9.

But McCain is now one of the president's biggest supporters on the war in Iraq, and he acknowledges his political fate in 2008 may be tied to whether the U.S. can ultimately prevail in what has become an unpopular war domestically.

"I believe that this new general and this strategy, which is long overdue 10, can succeed," he said. "And, we will know at least some indicators 11 in the early months [of the deployment], but we may not know some others for quite a period of time."

Political analysts 12 say McCain's support for the new strategy is a gamble, given the polls that suggest most Americans disapprove 13 of the policy.

Tom DeFrank is Washington bureau chief for the New York Daily News and a regular guest on VOA's Issues in the News program.

"It [recent poll] showed that one third of the country [of those polled], 33 percent, are less likely to vote for McCain because of his posture 14 of support for the Iraq war," he said. "And that, I think, has really hurt McCain, and, I think, has stunned 15 him and his advisers 16."

Other Republican contenders are working hard to broaden the nomination battle beyond McCain and Giuliani.

 
Republican Mitt 17 Romney addresses the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, 7 Feb 2007
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won a test vote at the conservative conference in Washington, finishing ahead of Giuliani, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and McCain.

"Now is the time, this is the place, for us to lead a great coalition 18 of strength for our families, for our future, for America," he said. "God Bless the United States of America!"

Romney is one of several candidates hoping to sharpen their appeal to conservative voters, who make up the most significant bloc 19 of support within the Republican Party.

 
Mike Huckabee addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington DC, 2 March 2007
Another Republican contender, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, sees a void in the Republican field in that no single candidate has a lock on the support of conservative voters.

"The theme might be, 'Dude, where is my candidate?' Well, I would like to think that maybe he is standing 20 in front of you," he said.

Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway says the wide-open battle for conservative support will help the Republican Party in the 2008 election.

"And as a conservative, I would like to see a bloody 21, bruising 22, competitive, let it all hang out primary where people are forced to come to forums 23 like this and look you in the eye and tell you who they are and what they think and where they are going to lead this great nation," she said.

 
Newt Gingrich speaks at the 2007 Conservative Political Action Conference, 3 March  2007 
The lack of a unifying 24 conservative candidate in the Republican field could provide an opening for others to get into the race, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Gingrich got a positive reception at the conservative conference, and says he will decide by September whether to enter the nomination battle.

"All three [top] Republicans have significant weaknesses," said Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes an independent political newsletter in Washington. "Even the Democratic frontrunners have weaknesses. So, although there are frontrunners and there are top tiers [of candidates], I think that many people think that, particularly on the Republican side, there is an opportunity for maybe somebody else to cut through."

Analysts also say the 2008 presidential race has intensified 25 much earlier than most people expected. The first caucus 26 and primary elections are still 10 months away.