2006年VOA标准英语-US - Venezuela Energy Ties Endure Despite Deter

By Michael Bowman
Washington
09 October 2006

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez before the United Nations General Assembly, Wednesday Sept. 20, 2006  
  
The war of words between Venezuela and the United States reached new heights last month, when Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called U.S. President George Bush "the devil" and a "world dictator" in an address to the United Nations General Assembly. But, despite escalating 1 diplomatic tensions, the United States remains 2 Venezuela's Number-One oil customer, a commercial relationship that appears likely to endure.

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The Venezuelan president stunned 3 U.N. diplomats 4 with his September 20 address, one day after President Bush spoke 5 from the same podium.

He said, "The devil came here yesterday. Right here. And it still smells of sulfur 6 today. The hegemonic pretensions 7 of the American empire are placing at risk the very survival of the human species."

U.S. legislators from both parties denounced the speech, as well as other Chavez comments, describing Mr. Bush as an alcoholic 8 and a "sick man."

The Bush administration has had little comment. "Those are words we do not feel should be responded to, or that are worthy 9 of being part of the discourse," said Deborah McCarthy, the U.S. State Department's special coordinator 10 for Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez, a self-proclaimed socialist 11, is doing more than give colorful anti-American speeches. He is backing Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities 12, taking sides against Israel in Middle East conflicts, and purchasing billions of dollars in Russian weaponry. He has made Venezuela Cuba's closest ally, openly backed leftist candidates in nations throughout the Americas, and led a campaign to derail a U.S.-proposed hemispheric free trade zone.

Analysts 13 say Mr. Chavez is emboldened 14 by his country's status as the world's fifth biggest oil exporter, and by oil revenues that have skyrocketed in recent years.

Jose Toro Hardy 15 is a former director of Venezuela's state-owned oil company.

He says, "In the last seven years, under President Chavez, Venezuela's oil revenues have been higher than the sum of all the oil revenue accrued 16 during all previous governments put together."

 
A woman watches arrival of an oil tanker 17 containing Venezuelan diesel 18 fuel sent by President Hugo Chavez's government in Nicaragua, October 7, 2006
  
And Venezuela's biggest customer, by far, is the United States, which imports about 1.3 million barrels of Venezuelan oil per day. At a price of $60 a barrel, that adds up to annual U.S. petroleum 19 purchases of more than $28 billion, about 70 percent of the Venezuelan government's total expenditures 20 in 2005.

Days after President Chavez' General Assembly speech, a major U.S. convenience store chain confirmed it would not renew a contract with the Venezuelan-owned retail 21 gasoline chain, Citgo. Some Citgo stations have reported a modest drop in business since Mr. Chavez visited the United States.

If bilateral 22 relations continue to deteriorate 23, would the Bush administration consider a boycott 24 of Venezuelan crude? The State Department's Deborah McCarthy downplays that possibility.

"The [oil] market is a private market in the United States, managed by the private sector 25. They make decisions, they decide [from] where they want to import," she said. "And they certainly assess risks, costs, etc."

President Chavez has accused the Bush administration of plotting to overthrow 26 him, and threatened to cut off oil sales to the United States.

But, such a move would be economic suicide, according to Johns Hopkins University Latin American studies Professor Riordan Roett.

"Venezuela would find out very, very quickly, it has nothing else to export; it [oil] is easiest to export to the United States," noted 27 Roett.

Even so, Mr. Chavez has pledged to reduce his country's dependency on U.S. petro-dollars, and shift oil exports toward China. Most analysts, including former Venezuelan petroleum director Jose Toro Hardy, are skeptical 28.

He says, "More than 75 percent of Venezuela's proven oil reserves are heavy crude, with high sulfur and metal content. There are very few refineries 29 in the world capable of processing this type of crude." He says, " As a matter of fact, in China there are none."

Nevertheless, the Bush administration has already contemplated 30 the possibility of a future without Venezuelan crude. In a June report, U.S. investigators 31 concluded that, if President Chavez were to cut off oil exports, gasoline prices in the United States would spike 32, but only briefly 33, until other crude suppliers made up for the gap. The report said the long-term effect on the U.S. economy would be minimal 34.

In fact, gasoline prices in the United States rose only moderately during a 2003 strike by Venezuelan oil workers that decimated the country's crude production for a three month period.

Venezuela accounts for up to 15 percent of U.S. crude imports. 

In short, the Bush administration says Venezuelan officials are mistaken, if they believe the United States can be intimidated 35 by threats of an oil cut-off.

"It is clear that they [Venezuela] depend on us far more than we will ever depend on them," said the State Department's Deborah McCarthy.

Just the same, energy experts say the United States would be wise to reduce its consumption of fossil fuels.

"During the Arab oil embargo 36 in the '70s, we [the United States] imported 30 percent of our oil. Today, we import over 60 percent. And that dependence 37 is growing," commented Anne Korin, who co-directs the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington.  "And it causes us to be dependent on regimes that we do not like, that do not like us, whose values are very different from our own. And it causes us to be forced to make compromises, in terms of how we would like to deal with certain countries."

Venezuela's total oil reserves have yet to be fully 38 certified 39, but many experts believe the country could be sitting on the world's largest supply of crude. Paradoxically, Venezuelan oil production has fallen in recent years, from more than three million barrels a day to about 2.5 million. Analysts note that President Chavez fired thousands of the country's most-experienced petroleum technicians and engineers following a 2003 strike, and has reduced investment in Venezuela's oil infrastructure 40 to help fund domestic social programs.