美国之音2013--欧洲经济危机可能结束

Signs Indicate Europe Economic Crisis May Be Ending 欧洲经济危机可能结束

Industrial production in Europe is starting to come back.  That means more jobs and more money that workers and their families can spend.  Over time, that means more economic growth.

欧洲的工业生产开始恢复，这意味着有更多就业机会，工人和家人可以有更多钱花。久而久之，这意味着经济增长。

The latest statistics make experts like Jonathan Buck 1, Europe Editor of the financial publication Barron’s, believe the continent’s economy is on the mend. “In the last couple of years, we’ve seen it, effectively, turn a corner of sorts," he noted 2. "I think that we will see Europe emerging from recession later this year.”

最新的统计数据使得欧洲金融杂志巴伦周刊的编辑乔纳森·巴可认为，欧洲经济开始恢复。“最近几年来，我们已经看到差不多好转了。我想今年晚些时候欧洲将从衰退中复苏。”

That would be good news for Europe’s protesting workers, like for railway employees in Romania, who have been marching against planned layoffs 3 and wage cuts.

这对如罗马尼亚的铁路工人等欧洲的抗议工人来说是个好消息，他们一直游行反对计划裁员和工资削减。

“We came here, first of all, to defend our working places, to have better salaries, better working conditions," said Vasile, a Romanian railway worker.

“首先，我们来这里是为了捍卫自己的工作场地，为了获得更多薪水，能有更好的工作环境。”

But at the London consulting firm Capital Economics, Senior European Economist 4 Jennifer McKeown said a real recovery is not likely very soon. "Even the more optimistic surveys are pointing to very modest rates of expansion, and after such a long and deep recession, that’s really not much of a recovery,” she said.

但在伦敦资本经济咨询公司，高级欧洲经济学家麦基翁说，真正的恢复不会很快到来。“即使更乐观的调查都会指出存在温和的通胀，经过了这么长时间这么严重的衰退，这确实不算上是复苏。”

A year ago, some experts warned the euro zone could break up.  But now Latvia is preparing to join the zone, and officials showed off the design for its new coins.

一年前，有专家警告说欧元区可能分裂。但目前拉脱维亚正准备加入进来，官方展示了新硬币的设计。

Still, McKeown said the threat to the euro continues, as voter patience with bailouts and austerity runs out. “I think that that all points to a risk of an exit, or at least a lot more tension within the euro zone in the quarters to come,” she said.

但麦基翁说，随着选民对援助资金和紧缩政策的耐心在消退，欧元面临的威胁仍然存在。“我想所有这些都表明，未来几个季度里都存在退出的风险，或者至少欧元区内会存在更紧张的事态。”

“The bailouts have helped countries to stabilize 5 their debt situations and their budgetary problems. And the breakup of the euro seems to have been taken off table,” said Jonathan Buck who works for Financial Times.

乔纳森·巴可不这么认为，“援助资金帮助各国稳定其债务情况，缓解预算问题。而欧元的解体看来还不会有可能。”

While that is not a universal view, it's noteworthy that any experts hold it.  But even Buck’s relatively 6 optimistic viewpoint has limits. “We still may see a few shocks that could test the sustainability of what we’re seeing in Europe at the moment,” he stated.

尽管这并不是普遍的观点，但值得注意的是很多专家都这么认为。不过仅是是巴可相对乐观的观点也有局限，“我们仍将面临一些震动，这将考验我们目前在欧洲看到的可持续性。”

So, even if Europe is in the early stages of recovery, it will be a long, slow and uncertain one, particularly for the region’s most troubled economies. 

所以，即使欧洲目前处于复苏的早期阶段，这个阶段也是漫长、缓慢和不确定的，尤其对该地区最困难的经济体而言。