美国国家公共电台 NPR The Wave Of Female Candidates Is Set For A Wave Of Losses, Come November

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Let's talk midterm elections now. The enthusiasm of Democrats 1 is a major force shaping this year's crop of candidates. Among the results of a newly energized 2 Democratic Party, far more women are running and expected to run in this election cycle than ran in 2014. A new NPR analysis shows, though, that a large number of those women will likely lose. NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben has been reporting that story, and she's with us now. Hello.

DANIELLE KURTZLEBEN, BYLINE 3: Hello.

MARTIN: So why is there a wave of women candidates right now?

KURTZLEBEN: Yes. There is a wave. And let's get into why. A key point here is that the wave is, by far, largely among Democratic women. You've seen a small bump among GOP women, as well. But it's mostly Democrats. And one big thing behind that wave - I've asked, you know, several women who are newly running for office this year, why are you running? And Donald Trump 4 almost always comes up. He has very low approval ratings, especially among Democratic women. They often mention his, you know, sexual misconduct allegations, the infamous 5 "Access Hollywood" tape and also his policies. You know, especially in areas like health care, I've had multiple candidates mention that.

But in addition, a lot of Democratic women just loved Hillary Clinton. And when they saw her lose, even though she lost, they were inspired by her. Aside from that, you have the #MeToo moment, and that really does cross party lines. There is a sense among many women that they are standing 6 up for themselves, that men in power have behaved badly and that it's time for women to take charge.

MARTIN: And did you just say that there was a small bump among Republican women, as well?

KURTZLEBEN: Yes. Yes.

MARTIN: Well, why do you think that this wave of women candidates will mean a wave of women losing?

KURTZLEBEN: Well, because I went through the numbers, and what I found is that of this great big wave of women running, a big share are women who are running in races that will just be really hard for them to win. So once again, most of that wave is on the Democratic side. And nearly half of nonincumbent Democratic women who are running for governorships or Congress - nearly half of those are running in races that are considered either likely or safe Republican wins in November. Similarly, if you look at those Republican women, of which there are fewer, one-third of them are running in safe or likely Democratic wins.

MARTIN: But are there any women running in competitive districts? So is it possible that we could see an increase in the number of women in Congress?

KURTZLEBEN: Yes, absolutely. So while women are concentrated in some of those tough races, especially the Democratic women, there are also more women running in races that are considered toss0ups this year. So there is plenty of room for women to get more seats. I mean, keep in mind that Congress right now is only around 20 percent women. And, you know, more than half of the electorate 7 is women. So women are not proportionally represented in Congress - their share of the electorate.

But one key thing to keep in mind is that these numbers that I'm talking about - they give us some perspective. The number of women has gone up sharply this year, and that is definitely noteworthy. But the share of candidates that are women has only gone up modestly. What we've seen is also a swelling 8 in men who are running for Congress, as well, and governorships. So part of what we're seeing here is also that the Democratic Party has a strategy of contesting even the hardest races this year. And they're putting people up of both sexes to try to win those.

MARTIN: Before we let you go, are there other reasons to run in a race that you know you're likely to lose? Like, for example, is there some benefit to the experience or the exposure that you might get?

KURTZLEBEN: That's absolutely it. Yes. I mean, you know, no one is going to say - and no one does run with the intention of losing. But, you know, there are longer-term benefits to running a race, even if you lose it. You know, if you run for office this year, and you happen to lose, you've gained experience running. You may have been, you know, a newbie, but now the party, you know, respects you more, understands that, you know, you can handle this again. You have name recognition. Maybe you registered a lot of voters who are now loyal to you. So these tens of thousands of women who have come out, saying, you know, I'm interested in getting into politics more - advocates for women candidates - they don't see this as the next election's worth of candidates. They see it as the next generation's worth.

MARTIN: Well, thank you, Danielle.

KURTZLEBEN: Thank you.

MARTIN: That's NPR political reporter Danielle Kurtzleben.

(SOUNDBITE OF MOBB DEEP SONG, "FRONT LINES (HELL ON EARTH)")