VOA常速英语2015--欧元区可从美日量化宽松中吸取教训

US, Japan Offer Lessons as Eurozone Launches Huge Stimulus 欧元区可从美日量化宽松中吸取教训

LONDON—

The Euro currency has fallen sharply after the European Central Bank announced a bigger-than-expected $67 billion-a-month quantitative 1 easing program Thursday — commonly seen as a form of printing new money.

The European Central Bank’s bold move was prompted by alarming figures showing 0.2 percent deflation in the Eurozone last quarter — raising the prospect 2 that people would stop spending in the expectation that prices would fall.

欧洲央行之所以做出这样大胆的举动，是因为有令人吃惊的数据显示上个季度欧元区的通货紧缩达到0.2%，这样人们就可能因为预测价格下跌而停止开支。

So will quantitative easing, or QE, rescue Europe’s economy? Unlikely, says Christian 3 Odendahl, chief economist 4 at the Center for European Reform in London.

那么量化宽松(QE)能拯救欧洲经济吗？伦敦欧洲改革中心首席经济学家Odendahl说不可能。

“The problem is that the ECB has waited relatively 5 long before it’s considering this relatively bold step. And part of QE is changing people’s expectation for the better. And expectations in the eurozone have deteriorated 6 quite a bit," said Odendahl.

“问题在于，欧洲央行在考虑做出这个相对大胆举动之前已经等了相对来说比较长的事件，部分量化宽松改变了人们良好的预期，人们对欧元区的预期已经有所恶化。”

Even the $1.3 trillion QE program might not be enough to change that, says Kathleen Brooks 7 of foreign exchange bank Forex.com.

就职于外汇银行Forex.com的凯瑟琳·布鲁克斯说，即使是1.3万亿量化宽松项目也不足以改变现状。

“One thing we have seen, certainly in the U.S.'s example, but also in Japan's example, is that it takes a hell of a lot of money to make QE have an economic impact," said Brooks.

“我们在美国和日本看到的一个例子就是，要花费大量的钱来让量化宽松产生经济效果。”

The United States’ QE program offers other lessons, said Odendahl.

Odendahl说美国的量化宽松项目也留下了其他教训。

“One is it works best if you are bold right from the start. That is the kind of announcement effect, the shock-and-awe effect, that markets truly believe that now a change is coming," he said.

“如果从一开始就大胆，那么效果会最好，这就是震撼效应，市场会真的相信即将发生改变。”

There are added political risks to quantitative easing in the eurozone, said Brooks.

布鲁克斯说，欧元区的量化宽松还会造成政治风险。

“If your central bank is buying up the assets of various member states, then all of a sudden Germany, in particular — they've got the biggest economy in the eurozone — could be liable if those states don't pay back the central bank," he said.

“如果央行购买各个成员国的资产，那么尤其是德国，会突然成为欧元区最大的经济体，如果这些国家无法偿还央行的贷款，那么这是可能的。”

German Chancellor 8 Angela Merkel gave a lukewarm reception to the ECB’s program at the World Economic Forum 9 in Davos on Thursday.

德国总理安吉拉·默克尔周四在达沃斯世界经济论坛上对欧洲央行的这个项目不冷不热。

"It is now time to cleanse 10 and consolidate 11 the finances, now that the interest rates are low," said Merkel.

“是时候清理并巩固财政了，现在的利率很低。”

Japan suffered a "lost decade" of low inflation and low growth — from which it’s only recently showed signs of emerging. William Saito, senior adviser 12 to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said the comparison has limits.

日本经历了低通胀和低增长的“失去的10年”，最近才表现出走出阴影的迹象。日本首相安倍晋三的高级顾问威廉姆·西户说这种对比有局限性。

“In the case of ECB and Europe, you have a good case of Japan to learn from. From Europe, which I think is fundamentally different from Japan, is that for many, many different countries put together with different ways of thinking," said Saito.

“就欧洲央行和欧洲来说，日本可以从中学到很多。就欧洲来说，我认为欧洲从基本上来说与日本不同，欧洲是很多不同的国家集中起来想出各种方法。”

Those differences could be underlined Sunday in the epicenter of the European financial crisis: Greece. The far left Syriza party has brought thousands of supporters onto the streets during the election campaign, on a platform of opposition 13 to German-led austerity.

周日，在周日希腊的选举中，这些差异可能会得到强调，有望获胜的极右派左翼联盟已让数千名支持者走上街头反对德国主导下的紧缩政策。