VOA双语新闻：13、经济专家: 俄罗斯面临长期衰退痛苦

经济专家: 俄罗斯面临长期衰退痛苦

Russia's battered 1 currency fell sharply again this week after a government report showed the economy had shrunk in November, the first such decline in five years. The Russian government recently announced steps to stabilize 2 its banks and bolster 3 the value of the beleaguered 4 ruble.  But experts say the country still faces a recession next year.

俄罗斯卢布本星期在政府报告显示经济11月下滑后再次大跌，这是俄罗斯经济五年来第一次萎缩。俄罗斯政府最近宣布了稳定银行和保护卢布的措施，不过专家们说，俄罗斯明年仍然面临衰退。俄罗斯经济如何陷入这种困境，将会面临什么样的前景呢？

Despite the holiday lights - the economic prospects 5 for Russia have dimmed.  Its currency has lost more than half its value this year and banks are running low on cash.  It’s a situation that's bound to get worse before it gets better -- says economist 6 Uri Dadush at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

虽然节日彩灯依然闪亮，但俄罗斯的经济前景已经暗淡下来。卢布的价值今年跌落了一半以上，各银行现金吃紧。卡内基国际和平基金会的经济学者乌里·达杜什说，俄罗斯经济形势还会变得更糟。

“Russia is facing a cliff really next year, the likelihood of a very severe recession and of course, there’s a massive confidence crisis at the moment,” he said.

他说：“俄罗斯明年真的面临悬崖，有可能出现非常严重的衰退，当然，此刻还有严重的信心危机。”

Investors 7 have already pulled more than $100 billion out of the country.  To stabilize the ruble and keep its banks afloat, Moscow sharply raised interest rates and recently announced plans to pump nearly $20 billion into Russian banks.

投资者已经从俄罗斯撤出了一千多亿美元。为了稳定卢布并帮助银行度过难关，莫斯科大幅提升了利率，并在最近宣布向俄罗斯银行系统注资近200亿美元的计划。

“All these measures together will allow our banking 8 sector 9, which is quite stable already, to be even more stable under the new circumstances and safeguard it from new shocks if they do occur,” said Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.

俄罗斯副总理伊戈尔·舒瓦洛夫说：“所有这些措施加在一起，将让我们已经相当稳定的银行系统在新形势下更加稳定，并保证在出现新的震荡时不会受到冲击。”

But any new shocks will hit Russian consumers the hardest.  Most have seen prices for imported goods soar.

然而，任何新的震荡都使俄罗斯消费者受到最大冲击。多数进口货价格飞涨。

“Let’s hope that our government will use their brains and will not let us become poor,” one woman said.

一位俄罗斯妇女在街头对记者说：“但愿我们的政府能够动动脑子，不要让我们变成穷人。”

Economists 10 blame the crisis on Moscow’s failure to diversify 11 its energy-based economy.  Add to that the rapid decline in oil prices and economic sanctions imposed by the West to punish Moscow’s aggressive policy in Ukraine -- and White House economic adviser 12 Jason Furman says Russia has only itself to blame.

经济学者说，之所以发生危机，是因为莫斯科未能将依赖能源的经济结构多样化。石油价格的迅速下跌以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略性政策所遭致的西方制裁，使局势雪上加霜。白宫经济顾问贾森·弗曼说，俄罗斯只能怪自己。

“And it’s a serious economic situation that is largely of their own making and largely reflects the consequences of not following a set of international rules,” he said.

他说：“这种严重的经济局势主要是他们自己造成的，主要反映了不遵守一系列国际规则的后果。”

The U.S., which does very little business with Moscow, is largely immune.  But trading partners like China and Europe are likely to feel the pain.  Just 30 kilometers from the Russian border, in the southeast corner of Finland, Russian tourists have stopped coming to the small town of Lappeenranta.  As a result, town officials say more than a thousand stores will probably have to close.

美国与俄罗斯的贸易不多，因此基本不受影响。但中国和欧洲等贸易伙伴可能要感受到痛苦。在离俄罗斯边界只有30公里的芬兰东南角小镇拉彭兰塔，俄罗斯游客不再来了。因此，镇里的官员说，一千多家商店也许要被迫关门。

Unless oil prices rise quickly or Russian President Vladimir Putin changes his mind on Crimea, economist Uri Dadush says it could take years for Russia's economy to recover.

经济学者达杜什说，除非油价迅速回升或者俄罗斯总统普京在克里米亚问题上改变想法，俄罗斯经济可能需要相当一段时间才能恢复元气。

"I think its premature 13 to say that this will force Mr. Putin's hand," he said. "More likely is a prolonged period of suffering by average Russians and the Russian economy in general, and then at some point over the next two to three years -- the economic situation will stabilize again."

达杜什说：“我认为，说这会逼着普京采取行动还为时过早。更大的可能性是，对普通俄罗斯人和总体的俄罗斯经济来说，将会有长期的痛苦，然后，过了两三年，在某个时刻，经济形势将会再次稳定下来。”

"We have been in much worse situations," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who says the crisis is unlikely to last that long.  And he says history suggests the Russian people and the economy will recover, emerging even stronger than before.

“更遭的局势我们也经历过。”俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫说。拉夫罗夫说，危机不可能持续得那么久。他说，历史表明，俄罗斯人民和俄罗斯经济肯定会恢复过来，并且会比以往更为强大。