VOA常速英语2013--阿富汗将面临艰巨一年:选举、安全是关键

Afghanistan Faces Crucial Year of Elections, Security Transition 阿富汗将面临艰巨一年:选举、安全是关键

KABUL — After more than a decade of war, Afghans have another tough year ahead. In 2014, they face the complete withdrawal 2 of international combat forces, a tapering 3  off of aid money, a weak economy, a continuing insurgency 4, and elections for a new president.

喀布尔— 在经历了十多年的战乱后，摆在阿富汗人面前的仍将是艰辛的一年。2014年，各国作战部队将全部撤出阿富汗、外国对阿富汗的资金援助减少，经济疲软、持续的武装叛乱活动，再 加上总统大选。

The April 2014 presidential elections will usher 5 in the first government since the U.S. overthrow 6 of the Taliban that does not have Afghan leader Hamid Karzai at the  top.

定于2014年4月的阿富汗总统大选将产生自美国推翻塔利班以来阿富汗首个没有领导人卡尔扎伊在上的政府。

Over the years, critics say Karzai has transformed from a reliable U.S. ally into an unpredictable leader, to the frustration 7 of both his foreign partners and domestic  allies. Nonetheless, despite his political maneuvering 8, Karzai has become a symbol for continuity in Afghanistan.

卡尔扎伊本人正在从一个美国可以信赖的盟友变成一个难以捉摸、让国际伙伴和国内盟友都困惑不解的人。尽管他在政治上采取了一些手段，但卡尔扎伊仍被视为是阿富汗国家存在的象征.

Young people growing up in busy cities like Kabul have expectations of a better future, but fierce power rivalries 9 and lawlessness in the country mean it is unlikely  next year's election will be free and fair, according to analyst 10 Kate Clark.

居住在像喀布尔这样繁忙都市的年轻人对期待着能有一个更美好的未来。但分析人士凯特·克拉克表示，激烈的权力斗争和乡村地区的无法制状态意味明年的大选将不会是自由和公平的。

“The ideal is that you have someone that has a popular consensus 11. And I think that’s difficult,” she said. “The fraud is so much that you are not going to get  anyone happy, and it’s a question of how messy it’s going to be.”

阿富汗分析网络人员凯特·克拉克说：“理想的局面是能够有一位有广泛支持的人物。但我认为这将是很困难的。猖獗的选举舞弊使不会让任何一方满意。问题的关键在于这场选举造成的乱 局到底会有多乱。”

Also in question is what is going to happen to U.S. forces in Afghanistan. By early December, Karzai had refused to sign a bilateral 12 security pact 13 that would keep a  contingent behind to train, assist and equip Afghan forces.

另外一个问题是驻阿富汗美军将何去何从。截止到12月初，卡尔扎伊仍然拒绝签署双边安全协议。该协议将允许保留一支机动部队用于给阿富汗军队提供培训、协助和装备。

Karzai snubbed the nation’s tribal 14 elders, who approved the security deal and called for it to be signed immediately,JirgaJ and instead declared that the agreement  should be signed after the elections and peace and stability are established in the country.

卡尔扎伊指责批准这一安全协议的阿富汗部族长老们。他说，协议要在大选后阿富汗实现和平和稳定后才能签署。

U.S. officials are working hard to convince Karzai to finalize 15 the security agreement before the end of the year, and say delaying the signing will make it harder to  keep the estimated 12,000 U.S. troops in country.

但这么做并没有帮助阿富汗政府与塔利班激进分子谈判的和平协议取得任何进展。塔利班也反对阿富汗与美国达成安全协议。

Another thorny 16 issue is neighboring Pakistan. The U.S. is concerned about Pakistan's harboring of militants 17 and the security of U.S. transit 1 routes out of Afghanistan.  An Afghan peace deal with Taliban militants - who also rejected the security pact - does not seem any closer.

Former Taliban and now Afghan High Peace Council member Abdul Hakim Mujahid says that without a deal with the militants, the country risks sliding backwards 18.

前塔利班、现在是阿富汗高级和平委员会成员的穆贾希德说，如果不能够和塔利班达成协议，阿富汗的局面将有倒退的风险。

“If we couldn’t reach a political settlement and we went to the general election, and a president came in power who is not assured of a political settlement, we will  [have] lost at least five years, unfortunately for peace, and we will for more five years, and the fighting and the crisis will be continued for more than five years  in this country,” predicted Mujahid.

穆贾希德说：“如果我们无法在政治上达成妥协，同时我们还举行大选，那么新总统将没有一个政治上的保障。那么不幸的是我们将丧失至少五年的和平，阿富汗的内战和危机将再持续五年 。”

Afghan security forces are increasingly taking the lead across the country, but attrition and casualty rates have been high. A July 2013 Pentagon report noted 19 that in  March, Afghan force casualties spiked 20 to more than 300 a month. March is the start of the traditional Taliban fighting season.

阿富汗安全部队正逐步在全国各地占据优势，摩擦和伤亡率仍然很高。2013年7月美国五角大楼的一份报告显示，3月份阿富汗部队的伤亡率攀升至每月300人。3月是传统上塔利班开始作战的 时期。

Clark said that as of September, Afghan security forces were dying at the rate of 100 per week.

Former minister Hamidullah Farooqi, who is also a member of the Truth and Justice party, says the national forces will need substantial help beyond 2014.

真理与正义党成员、前部长法鲁基说，2014年后阿富汗军队将需要大量援助。

“We are a little behind in that case, that is why we don’t know if Afghan security forces will be able to defend this country without support, and our economy, our  national resources are not enough for our national and security needs,” said Farooqi.

法鲁基说：“我们还有一段距离。这也是为什么我们不清楚阿富汗部队是否能够在没有外援的情况下保卫国家，而且我们的经济、我们的国力还无法满足我们的国家和安全需要。”

International patience is wearing thin with Karzai. Analysts 21 say much will depend on how much Washington is willing to accommodate the Afghan leader and his demands.  If the United States does withdraw all forces and a related eight billion dollars in aid, analysts warn that Afghanistan is headed for some very hard times. 

与此同时，国际社会对卡尔扎伊的耐心正在被消磨。分析人士警告说，如果华盛顿到时候真的全部撤走美军和与其相关的80亿美元援助，阿富汗就将面临极其艰巨的挑战。