PBS高端访谈:战无不胜的肯塔基大学会不会被一支弱队拉下马来?

 JUDY WOODRUFF: Finally tonight, March Madness has arrived once again, and, this year, there's a twist: The University of Kentucky is making a run for a historic and undefeated season.

The men's basketball team is 34-0, and fresh off winning the SEC Championship on Sunday night, Kentucky comes in as a favorite in a tournament that often showcases Cinderella stories. In an era of parity 1 for the game, where more and more teams are closely competitive, Kentucky's become known for their talent, for their coach, John Calipari, and whether his players leave school far too easily and too quickly.
John Feinstein of The Washington Post is the author of several books on college basketball. And he joins me now.
Welcome back to the program, John.
JOHN FEINSTEIN, The Washington Post: Thanks, Judy. Good to be here.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, how rare is it for a school to go into the Final Four undefeated?
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Into the Final Four? Rare.
The last team to do that was Nevada Las Vegas in 1991. And you might remember they lost to Duke in that national semifinal.
JUDY WOODRUFF: I remember.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: However, people seem to forget that, last year, Wichita State was 34-0 going into the tournament. But because they aren't Kentucky, all capital letters, they didn't get as much attention or glamour 2 for being undefeated, and they were beaten in the second round, ironically enough, by Kentucky.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, how does Kentucky do it? How do you explain their success this year?
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Well, John has — didn't invent the so-called one-and-done rule.
JUDY WOODRUFF: The coach, yes.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: John Calipari. But he's perfected it.
The way he recruits is, he goes out and he says, look, you must go to college by rule for at least a year. I will prepare you better than anybody for the NBA to be a first-round draft pick. And when he recruits those players, he can tell the guys ahead of them are going to be gone to the NBA, so there are going to be spots open for you to play right away.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, and just remind us, what's the argument about supporting student athletes vs. one-and-dones?
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Well, student athlete to me is both a redundancy — by rule, you have to be a student in order to be a college athlete — and also there's a lot of hypocrisy 3 in it, because so many of the players at the big-time schools aren't going to come close to ever graduating.
The one-and-done rule is a pox on college basketball. And I say that as someone who supported it when it first came in eight years ago, because I believed one year of college was better for a young man than no years of college.
But now I feel completely the opposite. If you don't want to go, and you're good enough, the way Kobe Bryant was, the way LeBron James was, the way Kevin Garnett was, to go straight to the NBA, you should be allowed to do that. That's going to be your profession. You're trained and ready to do it. And you will be paid millions of dollars for that.
To go to college and pretend to be a student for a year — because that's what they're doing. They go to couple classes for a semester. They stay eligible 4. And when they play their last game, they go prepare for the NBA draft. They don't even finish their freshman 5 years.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Now, coach Calipari has said, well, this year, he thinks that staying for a year is a good idea. What is going on there?
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Well, his best player, Willie Cauley-Stein, is in fact a junior. And the reason he's still there is because he was injured.
And he wasn't going to go as high in the draft as he initially 6 thought he would. He has got two sophomore 7 guards who again weren't going to go as high in the draft as they thought they were. So, John, who is very good at manipulating words — he's a very smart guy — is now saying, well, I think it's OK if they come back for another year, because he doesn't want them, the players, to feel humiliated 8 by the fact that they were — quote — “forced to stay in college” an extra year or two.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, OK, going into this tournament — I called it the Final Four — I meant the whole tournament.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Right.
JUDY WOODRUFF: What shape is Kentucky in? Are they a shoo-in? Where — I mean, what do you…
JOHN FEINSTEIN: No one is a shoo-in in one-and-done. If it was best four of seven, like in the NBA, I don't think anybody could beat Kentucky.
But, for one night, somebody could get in foul 9 trouble, somebody could turn an ankle, an opponent could get really hot from the three-point line. You can lose. That's what happened in '91, when everybody thought Nevada Las Vegas was unbeatable, and Duke beat them.
So they're not a shoo-in. They are certainly the favorite. They are the best team. They are undefeated. They go 10 players deep. They're huge. Their guards are 6'6” and 6'6”. That's almost unheard of.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: So, they will be very difficult for anybody to beat.
They certainly — I think people expect them to finish 40-0, be the first team to finish undefeated since Indiana did it in 1976. But if they lose, it won't be completely shocking.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So — OK, so just a little over a minute left. Who else do you like, these other Cinderella teams?
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Well, if you're talking about beating Kentucky, it's not going to be a Cinderella team. It's not going to be one of those low seeds that wins a game or two and gets to the Sweet 16 that make the first weekend so exciting.
I think Arizona is the second best team. They would both Kentucky if they both advanced in the national semifinals. I think they have the best-built team to perhaps beat Kentucky. Your alma mater, my alma mater, Duke, if they had a great shooting night, could have a chance. I don't think they play enough defense 10 to do it.
Wisconsin is a very experienced team. Those are the ones that come to mind right away.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, do you see — let me just back off.
Do you see this as a wide-open tournament? Because there are a lot of people out there trying to decide where they're going to place their non-monetary bets right now.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Yes. The first two — recreational purposes only.
The first two weekends are always wide open. There will be upsets by low seeds. When we get to the Final Four in three weekends, it's going to be big-time teams playing there. Very rarely, you get a VCU or a George Mason or a Butler there, but most of the time, it's the big-time schools the last weekend. And I expect Kentucky to be there and Indianapolis.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, do you — are you picking somebody?
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Oh, I always try to pick an underdog. I have already gone on record picking Maryland to beat Kentucky in the Sweet 16. And I'm sure that will make me very popular in the state of Kentucky.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: But you have got to pick somebody that is not obvious. So, I always try to pick somebody who is not as obvious.
JUDY WOODRUFF: You have always been a man of courage.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Or silliness.
JUDY WOODRUFF: John Feinstein, thank you very much.
JOHN FEINSTEIN: Thanks, Judy.