美国利率和油价将上升

美国利率和油价将上升

Researchers who track business activities and survey economists 1 say U.S. interest rates, stock market gyrations, and the price of oil are all likely to increase later this year. The uncertain future is causing many companies to take cautious measures with their business strategies.。

Home Depot 2, a major hardware retailer 3, is one of many companies that all together spent $104 billion buying back their own stock in February.

家得宝是一家大型家居用品零售商，今年2月份，该公司和多家公司总共花费1040亿美元来回购本公司的股票

The investment research firm Trimtabs says that is a record-high.

美国证券研究机构称这就创下了新高。

Retailers 5 Foot Locker 6 and Gap were among the firms doing buybacks, along with information technology firms. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding and tend to raise their value.

零售商富乐客和Gap和一些信息科技公司都进行了回购，回购能减少流通在外股票的数量，从而提升股票价值。

While this pleases company shareholders 7, it is a more cautious move than expanding by putting money into new equipment and employees, according to Trimtabs head David Santschi, who spoke 8 via Skype.

此举令公司持股者高兴，与通过将资金投入到新设备和雇员来扩大规模相比，此举更谨慎，美国证券研究机构负责人桑茨奇通过Skype接受我们的采访时说。

"It is a moderate vote of confidence in the economy, but it would certainly be better [for the economy] to see companies doing other things with their money if they really were gung-ho bullish [very optimistic]," said Santschi.

“这是经济中温和的信任投票，但如果公司过于乐观，那么能看到公司将钱花在其他方面当然更好。”

Investing in new buildings and equipment is more likely to increase the number of jobs.

投资于新建筑和设备更可能增加就业岗位数量。

Those jobs are on the way, as the U.S. economy recovers, says the head of the National Association for Business Economics, John Silvia.

全国商业经济协会主席约翰·西尔维亚说，随着美国经济的复苏，这些就业岗位马上就会出现。

"The current economic environment is positive for more hiring going forward," said Silvia.

“目前的经济环境对于创造更多雇佣机会来说很有利。”

Retail 4 sales are among the activities affected 9 by interest rates, which were cut nearly to zero to help the economy during the recession.

零售等活动受到了利率的影响，目前利率已被降低到接近零来帮助经济从衰退中恢复。

Silvia says hundreds of economists surveyed by the NABE say interest rates are about right for now, and should rise later this year, because the recovering economy no longer needs help from the record-low interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

西尔维亚说，全国商业经济协会调查的数百名经济学家都表示目前的利率合适，今年晚些时候应该会上升，因为日益复苏的经济不再需要美联储设定的创纪录的低利率。

"Overall thinking is by the end of this year it will go up a ‘modest’ amount. So it won’t be 25 basis points [one-quarter of a percentage point] every [Fed] meeting [every six weeks]," he said.

“大家都认为到年底利率会温和上升，所以不会0.25%。”

Stock markets have been more stable in recent years because of the Fed's efforts to boost the economy, according to Bankrate.com's Mike Hamrick. He says as the Fed cuts back its emergency measures, stock markets could be more volatile 10.

最近几年股市变得更稳定，这是因为美联储促进经济的努力，Bankrate.com网站的麦克·哈姆里克如是说。他说随着美联储逐渐减少其经济措施，股市变动将更加强烈。

Speaking via Skype, Hamrick also says Bankrate's survey of 25 economists found a consensus 11 that oil prices are headed upward this year.

哈姆里克通过Skype接受了采访，他说Bankrate对25名经济学家的调查发现，大家一致认为今年油价会上升。

"Roughly a 30 percent increase from the current level, so that may tell us that, for consumers in the United States at least, the best news on gasoline prices may be behind," said Hamrick.

“大概会从目前的价格上升30%，所以这对我们来说，至少对美国消费者来说，石油价格的最好消息可能还在后面。”

Oil prices and other issues will be considered by Federal Reserve officials next Tuesday and Wednesday when they debate interest rate policy and other economic issues.

在下周二和周三美联储官员辩论利率政策等经济问题时，油价等问题将成为讨论的话题。