VOA慢速英语2016 五件事让你了解美国政治民意调查

AS IT IS 2016-09-16 Five Things to Know About Political Polls in the U.S. 五件事让你了解美国政治民意调查

On November 8, the American people will vote for the next U.S. president in this year’s general election.

11月8日，美国人民将在今年的大选中投票选出下一任美国总统。

Donald Trump 1 is the Republican Party candidate and Hillary Clinton is the candidate for the Democratic Party.

Donald Trump是共和党的候选人，Hillary Clinton是民主党的候选人。

Before election day, people following the presidential campaign will see many polls.

选举日之前，人们跟随总统竞选将能看到多项民意调查。

A poll is a public opinion study.Research organizations ask people questions about the candidates to find out who they support.

民意调查是一项针对公众意向的研究。研究机构向人们询问有关候选人的问题，找出民众会支持谁。

For example, one of the polls is run by a professor at a university in the U.S. state of Connecticut. People who work for the polling service call likely voters on the telephone.

例如，有一项民意调查是由美国康涅狄格州的一位大学教授开展的。为投票服务的工作人员打电话给有希望参与投票的选民。

They ask the person who answers the call questions about the election. In most cases, it is “if the election were held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?”

他们询问接听电话的人们有关选举的问题。大多数情况下，问题是“如果今天举行选举，候选人是Hillary Clinton和Donald Trump，你会投票给谁？”

Sometimes the questions include more candidates or are related to campaign issues.

有时这些询问包括候选人或与竞选议题有关的更多问题。

Since the party conventions this summer, Clinton has held a lead over Trump in most national opinion studies.

自今年夏天的党代表大会以来，Clinton在大多数的全国民意调查中都领先Trump。

The website RealClearPolitics shows that Clinton leads Trump by about three percentage points in an average of national polls.

RealClearPolitics网站显示，在全国民意调查中Clinton平均领先Trump约三个百分点。

But sometimes the poll numbers change.

但有时民意调查数字会改变。

On September 6, a poll was released showing Trump slightly ahead of Clinton.This can be confusing for many observers.

9月6日的一项民意调查显示，Trump略高于Clinton。很多观察家可能会感到困惑。

How can one poll be so different from others?

这个民意调查为何同其他的有这么大区别呢？

Here are some things to remember when you are looking at polls:

当你在关注民意调查时，有一些事项要记住：

It is better to look at websites that combine the results of several polls to get the best idea of national opinion.

最好是看那些结合了几个民意调查结果的网站，以获得最佳的全国民意调查。

Some polls target specific groups of people. Many polls make sure they collect many different opinions. Sometimes, however, polling organizations receive money from groups that support a specific political issue.It is important to look at which group carried out the poll along with the results.

一些民意调查只针对特定群体的人。许多民意调查确定他们收集了多项不同的意见。然而，有时，投票组织收到来自支持某一特定的政治问题团体的钱。明确是哪一团体进行民意调查并且给出了这个结果是很重要的。

Some polls are using new technology. Traditionally, polls are done over the phone. But that is slowly changing. Many polls are now done online. While online polls can produce good information,it is sometimes hard to reach as many different types of people over the Internet.

一些民意调查正在使用新技术。传统上，民意调查都是通过电话进行的。但这正发生慢慢的改变。现在许多民意调查都在网上进行。虽然网上民意调查可以获得良好的信息，但是有时在网上却难以接触到多种派别的人。

Also important is the size of the poll. Try to find out how many people were polled before believing its results.

同样重要的是民意调查的规模。在相信其结果之前，努力找出多少人参与了调查。

Polls that study opinion in states where one candidate does not have a clear lead are the most important.

这样一些民调的重要性最大--这些调查关注州的情况，而在这些州中没有一个候选人处于明确的领先地位。

According to the politics website Politico, those states include Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa.

根据政治网站Politico，这些州包括俄亥俄州，宾夕法尼亚州，佛罗里达州，弗吉尼亚州，威斯康星州，科罗拉多州和爱荷华州。

These states are known as “swing states,” because the voting there may “swing” the election in the direction of one candidate.

这些国家被称为“摇摆州”，因为这些投票有可能“摇摆”给参选的某一候选人。

Swing states are important because the candidate who gets the most popular votes does not always win the election. The election winner is the candidate who gains the most electoral votes in the electoral college.A state’s electoral college votes are generally determined 2 by the popular vote in each state.

摇摆州非常重要，因为在普选中获得最多选票的候选人并不总是赢得选举。只有在选举团中获得最多选票的候选人才能获得选举胜利。州的选举团选票一般由各州的普选决定。

Polls only show how people feel at one moment in time. They do not show what will happen in the future. Public opinion may change before the general election on November 8. Some things that could change the opinions of voters include: the debates on television, the release of the candidates’ tax or medical records, and unexpected illnesses.

民意调查只表明了人们在一个时间段的想法。它们不能显示将来会发生什么。在11月8日大选前，公众舆论可能会改变。有些事情可以改变选民的意见，包括：电视辩论，候选人透露的有关税收或医疗记录，以及意想不到的疾病。

Words in This Story

general election –n. a regular election that involves voters and candidates throughout an entire country

poll – n. an activity in which several or many people are asked a question or a series of questions in order to get information about what most people think about something

swing – v. to move backward and forward or from side to side while hanging from something