2006年VOA标准英语-Modern Civil Wars Have Similarities And Di

By Bill Rodgers
Washington. D.C.
29 March 2006
 
watch Civil War report

A grieving widow touches her husband's coffin 1 as it is carried to a cemetery  
  

The continuing sectarian violence in Iraq has raised fears the country may descend 2 into civil war -- like those that took place in the former Yugoslavia or Somalia.  While military historians say there is no specific blueprint 3 for such conflicts, there are some indicators 4 when a nation is in danger of sliding into civil war. 

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In El Salvador …. in the former Yugoslavia …. in Somalia ….. there were savage 5 civil wars in the 1980s and 90s.  Each of these conflicts shared some of the attributes of civil wars: ideological 6 differences, ethnic 7 and religious divisions, the struggle for economic control.  Yet there is no one blueprint for what causes or constitutes civil war. 

Mark Clodfelter  
  
Mark Clodfelter, who teaches military history at the National War College, defines it this way: "It is going to be a military conflict internal to a particular country.  So you are going to have organized factions 8 fighting among themselves.  One of those factions is going to be the government and the military forces associated with it.  You are going to have organized resistance taking place from both sides and both sides will have publicly stated political objectives."

The American civil war of the 1860s fits that classic definition, a bloody 9 conflict between the armies of the North and South that left more than 600,000 combatants dead. More modern conflicts are harder to define.

"There is no specific blueprint, there is no one size fits all here,” says Mr. Clodfelter. “You can have instances, say the case in Somalia in 1991 and thereafter, where there is no organized government there and yet the rest of the world would say that what you had in that situation was civil war."

 
Louay Bahry
  
The continuing sectarian violence in Iraq has revived the question of what factors lead a country into civil war.  The February bombing of a holy Shi'ite mosque 10 unleashed 11 a wave of retaliatory 12 killings 13 between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias.  This violence, which has come in the midst of an insurgency 14 fighting the government and U.S. troops, has raised fears Iraq may sink into civil war. 

But President Bush downplayed those fears at a recent news conference.  "We all recognize that there is violence, that there is sectarian violence.  But the way I look at the situation is that the Iraqis took a look and decided 15 not to go to civil war.  The army did not bust 16 up into sectarian divisions.  The army stayed united," said Mr. Bush.

Yet kidnappings and executions continue, with bodies turning up at morgues on almost a daily basis.  Shi'ite militias 17 are blamed for many of the killings of Sunnis.

At the National War College, Mark Clodfelter says the rise of militias in a country can sometimes be a sign of impending 18 civil war.

"Certainly it could show that there is a trigger mechanism 19 there for a conflict that is going to develop into full-scale civil war.  I would say that could be a warning sign in particular for the government in power and they would want to react to that."

But quelling 20 the violence has been hampered 21 as negotiations 22 to form a national unity 23 government between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds have so far been deadlocked 24, a factor creating further instability.  

Iraqi political scientist Louay Bahry of the Middle East Institute in Washington warns the lack of a unity government could trigger civil war. "The identity of Iraq among Iraqis is very weak now.  When the institutions of the state become so weak, then people lose their own national identities and they fall back on their sectarian, and tribal 25, and family and clan 26 linkages 27."

Iraq may yet avoid the fate of Somalia or the former Yugoslavia, but some see the specter of civil war looming 28.